Chapter 13.     The "Do Nothing" Option.

Chapter 14.     Why Not Start Now?

It is not difficult to see that we have little time to prepare for the end of our limited resources. If we begin making our plans now, we may be able to prevent the chaos that at this time appears only too clearly on the horizon. We cannot wait for another ten years, it may already be too late for a normal progression. It may require extraordinary actions. In any case it is vitally important that we decide on our ultimate population and begin the activities that will guide us towards that goal.

Chapter 15.      National and International Scenes.

Chapter 16 Finale 

(A Fictional Glimpse of the Future)

It is almost the end of January 2062, and the snow is falling heavily around the Smith’s home. It sits with five other houses, surrounded by a thick grove of trees that are now leafless in the cold wind of winter. Here in the great plains of the Mid West, John Smith, his wife Mary and their two sons John and David operate their 10,000 acre farm. They employ the eleven other families that make up their tiny isolated community.

They all know that the snowstorm, the first heavy fall of the winter, will inevitably cut them off from the rest of the world until it melts in the spring and except for the use of their snowmobile, when absolutely necessary, to get to the nearest town, or the helicopter from the city in a case of real emergency, they will be physically cut off from any neighbors. But they are used to this physical isolation, the families are well provided with all the supplies they will need for the winter and they give each other the mutual support found in such a small country society .

Their small community is considered in the government jargon to be "Food Providers" (FPs) and "Isolated Living" (IL). These two ratings guarantee that the little group has a small ration of alcohol that allows them to drive their small van into the nearest town, 34 miles away, at least twice a week throughout the year. Their snowmobile in available in the winter when the weather permits travel, but it is rarely used unless an emergency arises. They have a completely self-contained electrical power supply from a large windmill and an array of solar panels. This produces enough electricity to power their refrigerators, lighting and communication equipment. Corn stoves, fueled from the dross of the harvest provide for cooking and heating their carefully designed, fuel-efficient houses.

Each family has a computer and TV room that is their window on the world and provides them with news and entertainment via interactive TV, as well as the education of their children. In the case of a medical emergency that cannot be handled by the small center in the Town, the state helicopter service will take them to the central hospital in the City that provides every possible facility. The little community is almost completely self contained. Horses provide most of the day to day power needed to run the farm. Their manure helps fertilize the crops although the artificial fertilizers are sorely missed and the crop yield is nowhere near that of some of the years before the "Stop". It is hoped that as more and more horses are available on the farms, they will help to close this gap in the food production. They also have cattle that provide meat, milk, butter and cheese and chickens in the barn keep them supplied with eggs. The gardens that are encircled by the twelve houses provide a steady supply of fresh vegetables and fruit during the warmer months and the bottled varieties that they prepare each year fills their cupboards for use in the winter. Most of the work in planting, and harvesting their main corn crops is carried out by the enormous machines that travel from farm to farm every year, but the twelve families have plenty to do in maintaining the land. This method of operating the farms was found to require the least of the very scarce and precious fuel from the dwindling oil fields and the new distillation plants utilizing vegetation of various kinds.

The families main link with the rest of the world is the fiber optic line that is buried below the frost line alongside the gravel road leading to the Town. There it joins up with lines from other isolated homes and is linked to the main system that eventually joins all the remote homes and businesses to the central computers in the City 180 miles away. In earlier days the connection was via satellite, but the expenditure of the fuel and other materials needed to place new satellites in orbit was unacceptable and communications often failed due to changeable weather conditions. The fiber optic network was eventually found to be much more reliable and flexible and less costly in the long run and it gradually became the standard method of providing communications. On the farm each family has its own telephone, internet and TV programming from the incoming transmission line.

The local Town, that is 34 miles away along the narrow gravel road, has only a few hundred inhabitants, and provides the basic services for all the small communities that dot the open plains. Here there is a very large general store carrying almost every item that could be required, even if not in the variety available in the City. There are tradesmen such as a carpenter, a mason and a blacksmith. There is a barber shop plus beauty salon that also doubles as a pharmacy and coffee shop. An electrician is available to come out and fix any failed power supply, and the two doctors and a dentist who operate the tiny medical center are also always available for consultation via the Internet.

"The Professor" as he is locally known, also lives in the Town and is in contact daily with every child between the ages of 4 and 18 in his area, via the Internet. He is personally available to each one every day during the six hours of lessons that are transmitted from his office, he answers questions and with four assistants guides their learning. After some hotly contested debate, especially from the teachers unions, the results of this form of tuition were tested over a few years and were found to equal, and in many cases exceed those of the more traditional education. It also avoided the use of valuable fuel to transport the students to a central school where, because of the distances involved, many had to stay from Monday morning until Friday night. It was believed that the fact that this form of tuition involved the parents in the day to day education much more than "going to school" each day, accounted for its success.

The Town has its own power supply from four large windmills and several solar farms. This system was found to be much more reliable than the long power lines that had previously crossed over the plains and that required constant maintenance demanding the use of vehicles and fuel. After the initial installation it was found that the maintenance costs were almost zero and required only the day to day services of one man who lived in the Town. A maintenance gang arrives by train once a year to carry out a full scale service and check out the system in great detail. One very important service provided by the Town is the rail link to the City. Twice a day in each direction the silver streamlined passenger train streaks across the plains, making the 180 miles to and from the City in less than two hours. Other slower trains pass through each day stopping only if they have passengers or freight for the Town. This is in fact the primary link between the Town and the outside world and the only way to move goods in and out of the area. Very occasionally, if there is ample proof of an urgent need, a truck will deliver heavy goods from the station to the outlying homes.

At the station also stand the enormous grain elevators where the lumbering harvest machines unload their cargo each year as they pass from farm to farm. Once a week a long grain train fills up its trucks and slowly disappears across the plain to the City. Initially the town had also offered movies, dances and other entertainment for the local people who came occasionally from the distant farms for the necessities of life. However this began to die out as each family became exposed to the 3D and stereo sound of their home theatres, and was finally killed completely when the interactive TV was introduced.

John’s oldest son David has completed his senior year of home education and is slated to begin his university course in two weeks time. He has already completed several hours of interviews and at the beginning of the new university year he starts working over the internet on his communications degree with his personal tutor in the City. His second year will be spent in practical work as a resident at the university campus, then back home for another year, returning to the City for his final year of practical work. When he completes the program he will have to decide whether he goes into research or manufacturing in one of the Cities, or returns to one of the more isolated communities as a maintenance specialist. At the moment although he has only visited the City once, the hustle bustle that he experienced has a certain glamour for him, but most of the country students eventually move back to their quieter background.

One of the older girls in their little community has recently successfully passed her Masters in art and is already teaching this subject to the neighboring students over the interactive Internet. She had intended moving to the City, but fell in love and married one of the young men in the small farming community. He wants to continue to work on the thousands of acres of farmland, so his wife will continue her teaching program while improving her standard of knowledge by working for a higher degree. If successful they may opt to spend a year in one of the educational centers before settling down on one of the smaller isolated communities.

John Smith had been up very early as he was to make one of his rare visits to the City. He had driven the snowmobile the 34 miles to the station in the Town and caught the first high speed train to the City. He had made arrangements to attend a farm meeting that would provide him with the latest information on the national plan for food so that he could organize the spring planting. Now he was walking slowly from the main train station in the City to the Farm Center. Here he would discuss the various crops, and agree on the acreage of each that would be planted in the spring. While in the City he also wanted to order a new milking machine for their small dairy. The City still showed the results of the demolition and recycling of the old community. The work was still continuing as the population continued to fall to its replacement level, which was planned to be achieved in the next five years. There were still the remains of some of the foundations of the old City with machines working to clear the ground. With the end of personal transport most of the more distant suburbs had been quickly abandoned, and as fuel was available for the wrecking machines, the rows of houses were being demolished, the ground totally cleared and the materials recycled. Many of the outlying suburbs had now been returned to farmland or were allowed to return to the wild. Initially it was felt that some form of public transport would allow the nearer suburbs to continue to provide homes. However when the inner housing development was finally available and seen to be open and park like, with everything within walking distance and an excellent train service to every part of the City, the demand for the apartments and houses made it obvious that the days of the suburbs were finished,

In the city center many of the skyscrapers and high rises had been quickly and completely torn down and the remains were being dismantled and recycled. Power was too precious to be used on elevators and escalators and they had been completely banned in all new buildings except for a single small version as an aid to the disabled. All new buildings were limited in height to three stories above ground and two stories below ground level. They were very carefully designed to make the most of the natural light, heat and ventilation, and their power usage was now remarkably small. Each housing unit in the city had been built around a minimum of 30 acres of public park, with trees, ponds and grass, providing space to walk, playing areas for the children and sports for the grown ups. Roofs everywhere were covered with trees and vegetation, not only for appearances but to provide thermal insulation. No matter which way you looked at the City the skyline silhouetted growing trees.

The center of the City contained the offices, the banks, and the administration services ringed around with a half mile circle of parkland. Beyond this encircled the shops, the museums, theatres, hospitals and educational facilities also with their open space. Next there came the housing and finally the outer ring containing the factories, and the warehouses. It was the proud boast of the City’s designers that any spot within the city boundaries could be reached via the subway system within less than ten minutes and it was also claimed to be possible to walk to the nearest subway station, from anywhere in the City within fifteen minutes. The trains were totally automated and ran every few minutes most of the 24 hours. A few miles away, just visible on the horizon, alongside the river, stood the tall chimneys of the atomic power station that provided the power for the City, the rail link and so forth. At first there had been an outcry of "Not in my backyard", but when the people saw that the alternative was at best a minimal supply of power from sun and wind, the outcry quickly lost much support.

The streets of course were for pedestrians only, there were no sidewalks and they were therefore much narrower than those before the "Stop". They had already been completely cleared of snow and except for an occasional emergency vehicle that screamed by with lights blazing and horns roaring there was no sound except the chatter of conversation and the tapping of shoes on the pavement. Deliveries to the inner city were done after 9pm via underground roads and as John walked from the subway station there was no traffic noise of any kind. The use of electricity for advertising purposes had been completely banned and the City at night lacked the bright lights and flashing neon signs, but the streets were lit until midnight. The absence of traffic and the many open spaces contributed to a very different way of life than the history books and old movies told of the past. Even in the center of the City a park or open space was never more than a few minutes walk away. In many respects the atmosphere was more like that of a country village, people nodded "Good Morning", looked at each other and smiled.

John was out of the Farm building within two hours, his plans for the coming year had been reviewed and agreed and he quickly made for the subway and the train to the outer ring station. From there it was only a ten minute walk to the Agricultural Manufacturing Company. He was quickly ushered into a rather luxurious conference room, where the Manufacturing Salesman greeted him and sat him down in front of a huge screen linked into all the companies that designed milking machines. John had originally decided to buy another machine of the same make as his twenty year old model that had proved to be very reliable. However as machine after machine came up in 3D on the screen, he carefully asked all the right questions but he finally settled on the same manufacturer as before and the contract was quickly signed and sealed via John’s smart identity card. John had also brought his recycling certificate that indicated his farm had returned nearly 20 tons of scrap metals and this gave him a much lower price for the new machine. The salesman keyed all the information into the production schedule which showed that all the raw materials required to manufacture the machine were available on site. The salesman shook hands with John, pushed the Start button and two floors below down in the factory; the computer controlled machines began their work. The display showed that manufacturing would be completed in six hours and the salesman promised that the machine would be on the midday goods train the next day.

They shook hands and parted in the lobby and John fastened his coat against the cold wind and scattered snow showers. He was glad to reach the warmth of the station and had only a few minutes to wait for the next train. He got off at the Central Circle and with plenty of time to spare wandered into the underground mile long shopping road that circled around the center of the City. The stream, the trees, the flower beds and the small waterfalls made this a very popular place to walk or just sit around especially in the cold weather. The kids came here to look at the latest things for sale in the shops and just to "hang out". John and his wife, like many of the country folk, usually came into the City once a year, if only to just to look over the latest fashions that were not to be found in the Town Store, although with everything available on the internet, their visits were becoming less and less frequent.

Way back just after the "Stop" when such frivolities were not readily available, and the stores in the Circle were just opening, John had bought his wife some pretty lingerie during a working trip to the City. It had become a joke between them and was now part of every business trip. John always felt somewhat embarrassed when he walked into the shop, but the assistant recognized him, smiled and helped him make his selection. Soon the satin nightdress was folded up in tissue in a cardboard box all wrapped in colored paper and string. John slipped it into his brief case, continued walking around the underground circle to the next subway stop and took the train to the main Station.

He had time to wait so made his way to the restaurant and sat with a cup of coffee watching the passengers walk past. He could not help thinking of the earlier days before the "Stop" when a trip to the City was noise, crowding and three or fours hours of driving. The announcer called for passengers to make their way to the train, and he soon settled back in the reclining seat as it slowly pulled out of the station. For a few minutes there was the rumble of the wheels as the speed increased but that quickly faded as the train reached cruising speed, lifted up onto its magnetic suspension and hissed across the snow covered fields. As he watched the moonlit landscape streak by he could remember the hours spent as a boy with his parents in their car driving to the city, passing by the many small farms and tiny villages. Most of them had been abandoned when the gasoline prices went above $10 a gallon, and within a few years many of them were dismantled and returned to farmland. He remembered the panic and the riots in the year before the "Stop", when the cost of gasoline continued to rise each month and the electricity supply to their farm shut down for hours on end.

He remembered the day, now known as "The Stop", when the government finally conceded that all the reasons that had been given for the increasing cost of gasoline, such as a lack of refining capacity and so on were untrue and had only been published to try and avoid panic because of the depletion of the oil supply. Power requirements of the country as a whole could not be met and no alternative source of energy was available. The next day all gasoline and oil deliveries were halted. He remembered the panic, the rioting in some of the cities and the National Guard arriving in the Town. Food was tightly rationed and electricity was only available for a few hours each day. When the power was available, the TV programs were full of the horror stories of people starving when they could no longer drive to the store for food and the delivery trucks that were sitting by the hundreds at the roadside, their loads rotting as they waited for fuel. In the cities there was total chaos as starvation became a major threat and martial law was declared throughout the country. The military was given the last of the gasoline supplies from the national reserve and began emergency deliveries of food. The government resigned "en bloc" when it was disclosed that everyone in power had known for several years that the oil supplies were coming to an end but had done nothing for fear of loosing votes and triggering the almost inevitable chaos that the news would provoke. Rather than facing up to the very obvious problem, for the past forty years administration after administration had hoped that some new source of fuel would be found although the science advisors had for years said that this was unlikely. The president claimed he was not informed of the very near total depletion of the oil supplies as the major oil companies had for several years given false and over confident reports of new oil discoveries to maintain their business. He set up an interim government that took over immediately and set up a science council that within a week issued four statements.

1. The replaceable energy and food resources could not sustain the present population level.
2. The population would have to be reduced until sustainable levels were reached.
3. All immigration was to be immediately halted and illegal residents returned to their own countries.
4. The remaining oil supplies were only to be used for emergencies and implementing renewable resources.
5. Food supplies would be very closely rationed until the population fell to the planned level.

After all of the problems of the previous year from the rocketing gasoline prices, the obvious increasing scarcity of food world wide, the riots and the almost daily blackouts, the country took a deep breath. The people read the report and seemed to say, "Well, at last now that we know the truth, we can move ahead and make new lives for ourselves".

John remembered the next very difficult years, the months of hunger, of trying to live off what they could grow in the garden, intermittent power and an almost complete breakdown of communications. Life changed quickly to that of the early settlers and they felt as if they had been separated from the rest of the world. The news that arrived by various means was universally depressing. Whole cities being deserted as transport died and electricity was only available for a few hours each day. The lack of power cut off the water supplies and heating and when people tried to warm their homes by other means the subsequent rash of fires could not be controlled. For almost a year there was complete chaos and a lack of central control. There was little of the riots seen in some countries and people gradually came together to restart the local levels of authority. Then there started the slow climb back to some semblance of national control and the complete reorganization of the farms and the small country villages in an effort to improve the food supply. John’s father was given the job of operating the large area of farm land, the houses in their little community were built and finally they were given a small amount of the alcohol based fuel that became available as the country’s population began to decline. Finally they were allowed enough fuel to make one trip a week to the Town, and a year later their independent power supply system was installed. John remembered the first of the high-speed trains that made it possible to visit the City and get back in one day. Most of the highways were ripped up and the little road transport that was available used the old country roads. The major advance was the installation of the fiber optic line that really brought all the people together. In many respects they were closer now than in the old days before the "Stop". Every morning with a touch of a button he chatted to his parents who were now living in Florida and they could see and talk to each other as if they were in the same room. To visit them however, now that all flying had been halted for lack of fuel, took over three days even by high-speed train.

He awoke from his reverie as the train began to slow as it approached the Town and passed over the bridge that had in the past taken it over the highway. The highway had been torn up two years after The Stop, but he remembered clearly as a boy, lying in his bed at night listening to the constant rumble of the huge trucks that had roared past night and day. At least he mused to himself the "Stop" had brought a quieter countryside. The train sighed to a halt and now as he walked along the platform, the only sounds were his boots crunching in the newly fallen snow and the loud hiss as the train picked up speed and rocketed forward to the next Town another 140 miles further along the line.

There were a few other people on the platform, most had also come from the City and as is typical in any small community, John knew several of them. They walked together as they made for the exit commenting on the cold and the snow. He waved to the Station Master as he walked into the vehicle park, started his snowmobile, and with headlights blazing quickly made his way along the road. The track was marked clearly with tall red stakes planted every twenty yards sticking out of the deep snow. The light was on in his garage as he parked the vehicle and kicked off his snow boots. His wife was waiting for him with a hot mug of coffee and they quickly settled down in their family center to watch the last TV news bulletin of the day.

The bad news came first and showed the massacres that had taken place in two adjoining Middle East countries. Both of them had totally refused to abide by the International Population Reduction Protocol (IPRP); the first stating that any form of birth control contravened the laws of their religion which demanded that every family must have many children as possible, and the second that they were not prepared to control their population in case they were overwhelmed by their neighbors. Both countries were heavily overpopulated and both were relying on aid from other countries to feed their people. Their neighboring countries had finally been forced to close their frontiers as their food supplies began to be threatened by the growing populations of their neighbors and the masses of hungry people that tried to cross the borders in search of food. Finally the two countries turned their military might on each other and nothing could prevent the slaughter of hundreds of thousands of hapless people. After the gruesome pictures were shown on the screen, the reporter said that order had finally been restored and new leaders had taken control in both countries. They had agreed to work to the IPRP and asked for assistance from the rest of the world. Unfortunately, although it was now possible to transmit ideas in the form of pictures and sound almost immediately from any place on the globe, it would take two or three months to get adequate food supplies to the area by wind ships and rail. The lesson was not lost on the rest of the world and one or two nations that were having second thoughts on reducing their population quickly confirmed their full participation in the PRP. There were many similar reports of smaller conflicts as countries, strained to the limit by overpopulation, tried to maintain order while the lack of fuel cut back drastically on the food aid from the rest of the world.

The good news came last. An exploration party had found a small new oil field in Alaska that would provide more than enough fuel to enable the government to complete the remodeling of the cities, which would now be finished at least five years earlier than had been expected. The latest population figures were meeting their targets and if the decline continued as planned it was hoped to reach the target level within ten years. The current drop had enabled the government to increase the ration of fuel from vegetation sources for public use in the coming year.

John yawned and clicked off the TV, then passed his package to his wife with a kiss on her cheek, "I remembered," he said. She kissed him back and laughed as she said "I knew you wouldn’t forget, but you’ll have to wait for the summer before I can model it for you". This was a joke between them as the bedrooms were not well heated and flannel underwear in bed was the order of the day. She held the nightdress against herself; "It’s lovely" she said and kissed him once again as they made their way to the bedroom.

John checked the printer tray before going to bed and was delighted to find an e-mail from the Farm Bureau stating that he would be receiving a manure processor that he could operate whenever his power supply was running at full output. It would take all the horse and cow manure and process it into dry pellets that could be easily spread using a horse drawn spreader. He would have the good news to tell the other men first thing in the morning, forking the manure out of the barns into the carts and spreading it over the fields had become one of the most hated and back breaking jobs on the farm. He climbed into bed and lay listening to the tiny noises from the outside world. No roaring traffic, just the gently sigh of the windmill blades as they charged up their batteries, the occasional thump as a horse kicked its stall.

The next morning the newspaper was waiting on the printer tray as he walked by to breakfast. The fighting in the Middle East had finally stopped but the middle page showed a large colored picture of the carnage. On a brighter note there was a picture of the maiden voyage of the first passenger transatlantic "Wind Ship" to sail from Southampton in England to New York. The enormous vessel had been named the Queen Mary IV and looked strangely clumsy with its huge pivoting four bladed windmills fore and aft, but the paper reported that it had taken only 11 hours more than the famous Cunard Queens to cross the Atlantic. Having few natural resources, Great Britain was using its vast maritime engineering experience to produce a service that could be exchanged for food and manufactured goods. Many countries were considering atomic energy as the prime power source for ships, but the radiation concerns had prevented them from building many of the vessels. It was planned to build at least ten of these "wind ships" using recycled steel and the remaining oil from their North Sea platforms, and use them to set up a daily transatlantic service. There was also an e-mail from the university asking David and his father to join an orientation meeting that was to be held at 10.30 that morning.

Next day David was slightly nervous as they both sat in front of the large screen and John adjusted the cameras to bring them both into view. They introduced themselves to the hundred or so other students and parents, and in return visited some of the participants that they knew. The head of the university then took the podium and after welcoming everyone explained the purpose of this session.

"In a few weeks time we will all be helping you to succeed in your chosen field of communications. This involves all of us working together, students, parents, as well as your tutors and the professors here at your university. We are living in an age of turmoil and change and I want to orient you to all that has occurred and is occurring in our world. There has been so much incorrect and exaggerated information put out about the happenings of the past decades that I want you all to understand the facts and where the university stands in these matters".

The picture of the professor faded and was replaced by a shot of the main street of the City with the accompanying noise from the masses of cars and trucks that were clogging the highway. "This is what our City streets looked like and sounded like 50 years ago," said the professor as the picture faded and turned back to him standing at the podium. "So much has happened and I want you all to understand how and why the changes occurred, why they were necessary and where they will eventually lead us". He paused and sipped a glass of water.

"Let us first of all look at the world as it was several years before the "Stop". Business was booming, transport was almost entirely powered by the internal combustion engine using gasoline or other oil products as the fuels. Personal transport was available to almost everyone and the population of the world was quickly growing. Now the driving force for all of this was one of man’s basest characteristics, --- greed ---" He paused and there was a distinct murmur from the audience. "The man who could make the most money, was generally the most respected, and enjoyed the highest standard of living. Today, when we try to reward every individual according to his value to society, you may find this a difficult concept to accept" He looked around at the images of his audience. "In many of our more recent historical records this is described as a very unjust, cruel and even immoral time for our society, and derided by many of our present day sociologists. In fact it was a system that worked extremely well for several decades, allowed our society to grow technically and economically and vastly improved the way of life of that era".

A list came up beside his face on the screen.

1. An economy based on a growing demand.
2. A finite quantity of materials to fill that demand.

"He pointed to the words on the screen."These two factors made this society possible, but they also both contributed to its downfall. The capitalistic competitive economy as we describe it relied on an increasing demand to fuel its wealth and its growth. Without growth the competitive aspect of the system was not truly effective but this growth was readily available from the increasing world population and the steadily improving standard of living. However for competition to work it also requires a limitless supply of all the necessary resources. Unfortunately the oil supply as we well know is a very finite resource and as it became reduced, the suppliers were able to control the supply and hence the price. They effectively now controlled the world economy as almost all traffic in goods and people and much of the world’s electrical power were dependent on a reliable supply of oil.

There were many signs that the fast growing population of the world could not be supported with the resources available in the world. Pollution, a lack of clean water in many places, and increasing number of people dying each year from starvation were all becoming matters of serious concern. However the first practical effects were clearly visible in the early part of this century as gasoline prices steadily rose until many people could no longer afford to use their motor cars. At the time there were many reasons given for this increase such as the legal requirements for a clean fuel, lack of processing plants and so on. No one in authority wanted to be the first to say that the supply of oil was becoming depleted and that the world’s resources could not support the growing population, as this could lead to even more problems. But as the cost of fuel increased so did the cost of electricity and therefore the cost of living. The politicians of that day accused the power companies of overcharging; some demanded tighter government control and so on. Finally the truth could no longer be hidden and the people were told of the coming end of the oil supply. This was quickly followed by the "Stop" legislation, in an attempt to control the remaining fuel and this totally changed our way of life." He paused and looked at the screen, "Any questions so far?" he asked, and immediately four question marks appeared at the bottom of the screen. The speaker touched one and the picture of a young lady with bright blue eyes and a blond ponytail came up in the bottom right hand corner.

"I’m Claire Polland" she introduced herself, "And I want to know how the authorities of that time could be so stupid as to base their entire society on a resource that they knew was limited and eventually bound to be totally depleted?"

The speaker laughed briefly. "Well it’s not that difficult to do" he said, "They had seen something similar happen several times in the past; forests being cut down, land turned into dust bowls, mines stripped of their ores. In all these cases however there was a replacement of some kind, and the overall way of life was not materially changed. As a people we had become used to nature providing another resource whenever we depleted what we were using." He paused for another sip of water. "Your question however is an excellent one and is fundamental to this entire orientation session. There were three basic reasons why they did nothing. He put up another list on the screen.

1. Nature had always provided another source, and would do so again.
2. They believed science and technology would find an alternative source of energy.
3. Reducing the population was an unpopular subject and it would wreck the current economy.

"Let’s consider each of these items in turn" he said. "First, the exploration for new sources of oil was constantly finding small pockets and there was the hope that a large find would be made in some area not yet explored. This was constantly mentioned in spite of the forecast of the geologists that this would be extremely unlikely. New and novel forms of power were also being constantly tested with a great deal of publicity. There were solar powered cars, solar farms: for generating electricity, hydrogen and fuel cell vehicles and windmills. However no one was prepared to estimate the population level that could be accommodated in this way, but the idea was rampant that "something" could be found that would take the place of oil. Finally, controlling the population was never even considered as an option, because it cut across many of the philosophies that were rampant in those days and it was believed it would initiate violent opposition. Based on these factors the government of those days preferred to ‘leave things alone and let them work themselves out’".

He touched the second question mark. "I’m Tom Hastings," said the young man with a short black beard, "What happens now and where do we fit in"?

"Well: said the professor, "You all know how the laws have changed. We are reducing the population to a level that we can know can be supported with only replaceable resources. The small remaining amounts of oil and gas are only used to power the machines to bring our civilization into that era. You have seen the remnants of the old city being broken down for recycling, and that will continue until there are only the facilities necessary to maintain our stable population. Of course changes will be made as our science and technology shows us new or more efficient ways to use our resources, but essentially we are looking at a very stable society. You," He waved his hand to embrace his audience, "Have a very important place in that society. In the old days we could travel by land, sea and air to almost any place in the world quickly and whenever we wanted to go. That has now changed, travel is much slower, much more costly and time consuming. But we have made tremendous advances in the communications technology and today I can sit down and talk to almost anyone anywhere in the world. I can hear them, see them and they in turn can see and hear me. Soon we will be able to use our sense of touch. In many respects the world is much closer than it has ever been. Only this morning I attended a meeting in London, here I am talking to you all and tonight I am attending a lecture in Tokyo. This would have been impossible some years ago. This is your future, to keep the people talking together, to keep ideas, sensations and images flowing freely around the world."

He touched the next question mark. "My name is Charlie Jadd," said the young man with glasses and long black hair, and my question is, will we ever find another way to move people and goods through time and space"?

The professor smiled as he flipped the picture back to himself at the podium. "I can understand your wishes and your hopes" he said, "We are constantly seeing the fantastic movies on TV with marvelous machines that can move entire continents, or let us slip back to past centuries. They make fascinating stories, but there is no possibility that such systems are or ever will be developed. I’m afraid we are stuck with the realities of science".

He touched the last question mark and the head and shoulders of a dark haired girl filled the corner of the screen.

"Mary Slater" she said, "And I want to go back to an earlier question. You explained the reasons why the government of the day was reluctant to accept that the ending of the oil supply was imminent, and that I can understand, although I think they must have been incredibly stupid. What I cannot accept is how on earth they could believe that the world’s population could continue to grow indefinitely without eventually totally decimating our resources. I feel very angry that they had so little concern for us their children".

There were no more questions and the professor continued to describe briefly the new laws regarding recycling and the use of non replaceable resources, and the ways that this impacted their future lives in society and industry. He ended with a welcome to them all and his best wishes for their stay at the university.

David switched off the interactive television equipment. "Was it really as bad as they say"? He asked his father. "Oh it was tough all right", John replied, "I’m glad you will not have to go through anything like it, but right now we have to get the sled out and hook up the snowmobile ready to go to the station and pick up our new milking machine."

"How on earth could people be so stupid" the young man commented as they walked together out into the bright sunshine reflecting off the snow-covered fields.