Discussion
I have a bit of a problem. I am researching the topic of oil supply in the US and one thing that I need to know for my class is, if the US decided not to import any oil from outside the country, how long would our oil resources last? I would appreciate it if you could help me. I have been searching the internet and found all of the other information I need but this question has not been touched upon. Thank you.
Ken Meyercord responds:
Good question! I'm not surprised that you've had problems finding an answer. It seems easy enough to calculate when the US would run out of oil: just take proven reserves and divide by annual consumption. If we take one expert's figures - consumption of about 7 billion barrels a year, proved reserves of 22 billion barrels - we'd run out of oil in just 3-4 years! But the calculation is clouded by a number of factors. First, you have to make assumptions about future consumption; for instance, that it will remain the same. Second, you have to make assumptions about production; history shows it cannot be maintained at the current rate (in fact, it's been in decline since 1971). Third, you have to consider the impact of alternative energy sources: wind and solar power, hydrogen fuel cells, natural gas, biomass, etc., as well as non-conventional sources of petrolelum, such as oil shales.Finally, nobody knows how much oil is out there: the oil companies are very secretive about their reserves and nobody knows how much oil awaits being discovered, particularly in the deep ocean. So, you've probably asked a question impossible to answer, and maybe not worth answering as the answer would have to be so hypothetical. I encourage you to visit the website of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas (www.peakoil.net), particularly issue #23 of their newsletter, which discusses the oil history of the United States, to learn more.